This Week and The Weeks Ahead for Crypto

A quick look at the U.S. market and crypto for the first week of June and into summer/fall.

Traders,

The dollar is right on its projected path as expected. Inflation has prevented the Fed from lowering rates at least once. Can we expect a rate drop before the end of the year?

My guess is that even with a bit of inflation showing the Fed will drop rates at least once. There are several reasons for my conclusion here not least of which are weakening economic indications which are too numerous to list for the purposes of this post but some of which are the collapsing car market, cc default rates exploding, commercial real estate vacancies still increasing, and many other factors and lead indicators.

There is also the fact that the Fed was initially expected to drop rates 3 times in 2024. Failing to drop at least once before the end of the year would have psychological ramifications on the market that potentially could be disastrous.

And finally, there is the fun fact that historically the Fed has always adjusted rates in an election year. There is only one exception to this rule …2012. Based upon this statistic alone we can see that the probability of a rate adjustment this year is high. And we know that if there is an adjustment, it will almost certainly be to the downside as that is what has been expected all along. Any anomaly to expectations would cause chaos and catastrophe in the markets.

All this being said we can then continue to expect the dollar to travel its expected pathway …down. 103.5 is the next support. Below that is that pink ascending trendline around 102 and rising.

Dollar

The VIX remains rangebound and in very good territory all things considering geopolitically and globally. No one can predict the future but as long as there isn’t any earth-shattering news, fear will probably remain low, given the exception of U.S. election shenanigans coming up. Be aware here that my prediction is that at the last second (and really when it is far too late) they will pull Biden out of the race. Many will not be expecting this (though, I am astounded at how they will not) and it will cause massive volatility in our markets again before settling down.

VIX

With the dollar trending down and the VIX at low levels, we can then continue to expect the U.S. stock market to continue to rise. And, in fact, that is what we are witnessing as we close in on the blow-off top target of the Elliot Wave theory that has resonated with my instincts for these last 2 and a half years. We are currently in wave 5 and on our way to the target I have set of SPY 570-600. There is still time and I believe we will easily get there before U.S. election shenanigans begin to unfold. Once you start to catch wind of anomalous election news events here in the U.S., know that we are near our top. For me, it will be time to pull out.

SPY

This all brings us to our crypto market which will continue to be influenced by broader market news, price action, and events. I believe BTC dominance will remain above 50% through the end of the year. Some believe that ETH spot ETFs may make this difficult. I don’t. The majority of crypto ETF hodlers will hold BTC ETFs for their exposure.

However, ETH ETFs will give Ethereum and therefore altcoins a nice bump/pump and I believe that, as long as ETH can hold this current support level at around 3700, then altcoins have found their local low. In other words, altcoin season is close. Supporting this theory is this inverse H&S pattern which I spotted well before the right shoulder had even formed. We can now see that this pattern appears to actually be playing out and Ethereum should remain strong for the remainder of 2024, though the possibility of breaking support at 3700 and dropping to 3500 still remains relatively strong as well before further upside. Adjust all stops accordingly.

Ethereum

Let’s wrap up by taking a look at our Total3 chart which includes all alts except ETH. This shows a strong bullish bias. We’ve broken to the upside of our triangle, retested the top of our triangle as support, and are now using that strong PoC from our VRVP as support along with our 50 & 100 day SMA. I love to see all of this as it signals good things to come from our alt space ahead.

Total3

I continue to remain long in alts with almost 100% of my total public portfolio. My followers and I are at 11 wins with over 35% profit per trade. Our average trade is 11 days. Though these wins are great, I expect them to be blown out of the waters soon. Don’t miss out. The best is yet to come.