Is a supply shock coming for Bitcoin?
Crypto Weekly Update
Traders,
I will probably not be posting as frequently this next week due to some personal matters that require more attention. Thus, I thought pushing out another general update on where we are currently sitting in the crypto space would be appropriate.
As you have seen, I have still been busy entering trades in alts. The main reason for this is Bitcoin’s continued sideways price action. Because the bears have not had the power to push it down to the 48k support area, various altcoins have been given a chance to continue their rise. I have been attempting to spot those coins with the greatest potential of popping and entering as I see the time is right. So far, we are doing great in this regard. And unless/until the bears are able to push Bitcoin down below that bottom ascending purple support, I will continue to look for good setups in the alts. Though, I may not have the opportunity to alert you all on every exit or take-profit point this week, I will still attempt to post any new entries. Perhaps, that is what you all would prefer anyway as it will mean less in the way of noisy substack notifications from me? Let me know in the comments any further thoughts on this.
Back to Bitcoin. Honestly, Bitcoin bulls have amazed me. Even with the pullback that I expected after the ETF approval news, we did not touch the supports that I expected we might. This indicated the bulls would maintain control. And they certainly have.
If done right, the technicals will often show us the future of price action. But sometimes, it will not show us the complete picture without at least a surface understanding of the fundamentals. For this reason, I have alluded to fundamentals several times in my previous weekly updates and Bitcoin posts. Mainly this:
Bitcoin ETFs were at one point demanding an average of 12x+ that which Bitcoin miners could supply.
Only 24% of Bitcoin remains liquid and available for trading
Bitcoin halving is only months away making it that much less available
Demand from various nation-states for Bitcoin continues to rise
Simple math here dictates that the multiplier effect is going to cause Bitcoin (and much of crypto) price to go parabolic. We could soon see a supply shock occur that has never been witnessed previously. And, my followers know, I am no moon-boy who incessantly pumps crypto. My conclusion simply is predicated upon cold, hard logic, math, and reason.
Side note: I have never been a huge Bitcoin fan as you may have been able to tell from my underhanded jabs or derogative nicknames I have given to BTC like “Boomer Trading Coin” and more recently, “Blackrock Trading Currency”. I believe that of all cryptos that exist Bitcoin is probably one of the least private, most expensive transactionally, and most centralized in terms of ownership. Certainly, the latter is much more true recently. There are far better alternatives that exist that fulfill the goal and function set forth by Mr. Nakamoto. Anyways, this is a whole other topic and Bitcoin remains the lead dawg on which all eyes are focused. Therefore we must give it the attention and respect it deserves as the price leader of the crypto space.
To conclude, if we don’t see a pullback in Bitcoin soon, this sideways action, much to the shock of many analysts, may be all that we see. At most, at this point, I would be happy with a retreat and touch of the 48k support area before we hit new all-time highs this year.
Altcoins will certainly come along for the ride here and the best blockchain technologies will exaggerate this move up. I still believe many alts can see 10x plus gains from here.
In any case, we have to be prepared either way. So, continue to practice those safe trading habits: be disciplined and consistent with your strategy, set your targets, set your stop-outs, don’t put all your eggs into one basket, and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
For those of you following my trades, keep a close eye on my Trader Tracker as always. I think I have everything up to snuff and will stick to the data I have at this point. If anything changes look near the top. I usually am good about posting my last 5 trade actions on the sheet:
Also, there are other trader educators out there, both unpaid and paid, who produce a lot of "noise" content... I don't think you do at all and look forward to each post you make, even if I can't follow every trade.
I prefer notifications about each exit, as I have stops set and I can validate they worked, and my current exchange does not allow OR orders - so either stop-loss or take profit, not both. Very annoying and I plan to migrate soon.