Bitcoin - Caution. Here's what the bulls are now up against.

#bitcoin #btcusd #crypto #cryptocurrency #usdollar #dollarindex #dxy #thefed #jpow #priceaction #tradestrategy

Good Morning Traders,

I promised a mid-week update if Bitcoin didn't follow price action as I anticipated. It certainly did not. In fact, we are drawing close to a territory that concerns me. More on that below. But first, let's review what didn't happen:

[list]

[*] BTC did not remain above the 100 day
[*] BTC did not remain above the .618 fib retracement level
[*] BTC did not ascend to an anticipate price zone I had circled above in the last chart.
[/list]

Ok. So now, we must reanalyze our charts based upon the new price action and chart data we are observing. I've made note of the key items that I believe are the most significant on the chart. Some of these are bullish variables, and some are bearish.

Let's start with the bearish:

[*] The list above plus,
[*] We are deep in the FUD Zone, which if you zoom out on the daily could, in fact, be a longer-term bear flag from my H&S pattern which has yet to be completely invalidated. Yikes! Let's hope this is not the case.
[*] We are getting too close for comfort to my long-trending yearly support line in the sand which today sits right around 38,500
[*] We are below a fairly strong support level at 40,700 which will now act as overhead resistance
[*] There is the potential that these last two green candles formed on the daily are simply the formation of a new bear flag, in which case, it might move us down further to a re-test of our yearly support.

As you all know, I absolutely DO NOT want us to test that support again. We have now tested this support nearly a dozen and a half times since Jan. and with each test/re-test, that support will become weeker and weeker. I do not know that it will hold should we get another re-test on it! If we break it, down we'll go!

Now the bullish indicators:

[*] We bounced at the 80% fib retracement level. This level was drawn from the move up starting on March 14th to it's end at the 200 day ma on March 28th.
[*] Not testing our yearly support again can also be viewed as positive (though, being so close is not necessarily bullish).
[*] A look at the U.S. dollar chart indicates we are overdue for a pullback on dollar strength. This pullback, should it come, would give BTC the break it needs to move higher.

These are the details that I mainly wanted to relay to you all for now. I will do a video in a bit, reviewing this data and providing clarity for those of you that appreciate it. Hope this helps a bit.

Best to you all. Be cautious and careful with your trades for now. Direction is uncertain.

- Stew